After the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran, geopolitical bets on the Polymarket platform surged, with relevant contracts covering ceasefire timetables, regime change and leadership succession.Among them, the largest market is betting that Supreme Leader Khamenei will step down on March 31. After his death was confirmed, the transaction volume of this market reached 45 million US dollars, and the transaction ratio reached 100%.The currently active market predicts that the probability of the Iranian regime's collapse before June 30 is 54%, and the probability that the United States and Iran will reach a ceasefire before March 31 is 61%.On-chain analysis shows that some wallets made $1.2 million in profits by accurately predicting the date of the airstrike.