For prediction market traders, the biggest pain point is often not "not knowing," but "arriving late." When we see breaking news, our instinctive reaction is usually to verify first: "Is this news real?" or "Is it a rumor?". This caution is a virtue in traditional investing, but in a binary options market like Polymarket, it can be an extremely expensive hidden cost. We call this cost the "Confirmation Tax." The PolyHub team analyzed 2,023 on-chain transaction records on Polymarket, attempting to answer a quantitative question: To achieve 100% information certainty, exactly how much Alpha are you sacrificing? The data conclusion was harsher than we anticipated: **In the most liquid black-swan events, the first 10 minutes absorbed 96% of the information advantage.** This means that when you spend even just 1 minute confirming the news, you are effectively handing over the vast majority of profits to opponents willing to take risks or who have access to faster information sources. This article does not aim to spread anxiety, but merely to reconstruct the "golden entry windows" for different types of news events by reviewing on-chain data from three typical markets. The conclusion is brutal and simple: In prediction markets, time is an exponential function of money. The later you enter, the smaller the remaining profit margin you can capture, and this decay rate often far exceeds most people's imagination. **I. Defining the Metric: What is "Remaining Profit Margin"?** To quantify the cost of "entering late," we use a simple metric: **Remaining Profit Margin (Alpha) = 1 - Current Purchase Price** For a contract that ultimately settles at $1 (YES): * Entering at $0.20, your remaining margin is $0.80. * Entering at $0.90, your remaining margin is only $0.10. This is the money left on the table for you. Our research found that over time, this money does not decrease linearly but evaporates exponentially. **II. On-Chain Review: Three Different "Decay Curves"** **1. Sudden Certainty Type: Only "Blind Rush," No Time to "Confirm"** * **Case Study:** Maduro's Arrest (Maduro out by Jan 31, 2026?) * **Characteristics:** Physical event + instantaneous official confirmation. * **On-Chain Data Reconstruction:** * **0-1 minute (Golden Window):** Within 60 seconds of the information shock, the average transaction price was only $0.56, meaning the remaining profit margin was as high as 0.44 (44%). * **1-5 minutes:** Just a few minutes later, a large amount of capital flooded in, and the remaining margin rapidly dropped to 0.12. * **After 10 minutes:** The price stabilized around $0.97, Alpha was exhausted. * **Trading Insight:** In this type of market, Alpha's half-life is **less than 2 minutes**. If you try to wait for "in-depth reports" from mainstream media to confirm the information, you are essentially providing exit liquidity for those who entered in the first minute. The only strategy here is: under controllable risk, sacrifice certainty in exchange for a better entry position. **2. Negotiation/Revision Type: Compete on "Signal," Not on "Speed"** * **Case Study:** Silicon Valley Bank Acquisition (Will SVB be acquired?) * **Characteristics:** No single breaking news piece; composed of weekend negotiations, rumors, and revisions to market expectations. * **On-Chain Data Reconstruction:** * **First 6 hours (Observation Period):** Although it was already Monday morning, the price remained around 0.61-0.64, the market hesitated. * **6-12 hours (Confirmation Period):** The price rose in a stepwise fashion, from 0.64 to 0.94. * **Trading Insight:** The decay in this type of market is "stepwise." The golden window lasts **0-6 hours**. Speed isn't the priority here; you need to find the "confirmation signals" that can change market consensus (e.g., rumors of negotiations breaking down, large buy orders from Smart Money). **3. Priced-In Type: Buying Equals "Buying the Top"** * **Case Study:** TikTok US Ban (TikTok banned in the US) * **Characteristics:** The event itself has been highly anticipated for a long time, with massive market liquidity. * **On-Chain Data Reconstruction:** In the 60 minutes before and after the ban officially took effect (T0), the price stabilized around 0.84, showing almost no Alpha generation. * **Trading Insight:** For highly anticipated institutional events, T0 is not the starting line, but the finish line. Entering at this point offers no information advantage, only the risk of "selling the fact." **III. Practical Advice: Build Your "Entry Decision Tree"** Based on the data above, we suggest that when traders see news, they shouldn't rush to place an order immediately. Instead, take 5 seconds to determine the event type, then match it with the corresponding strategy: