On February 23, 2026, according to a Cointelegraph report citing the Financial Times, U.S. President Trump's announced 15% global tariff policy is set to trigger a seismic shift in global supply chains. However, contrary to expectations, in terms of net beneficiaries, China and Brazil are poised to become the biggest winners in this trade barrier war. For Web3 investors, this is far more than just traditional macro news. The trends of "deglobalization" driven by tariffs, the reignition of inflation expectations, and the accelerated de-dollarization process within the BRICS nations are profoundly reshaping the underlying valuation logic of Bitcoin (BTC), Real World Assets (RWA), and the stablecoin payment ecosystem. **Introduction: Counter-Intuitive Macro Dynamics and the 'Butterfly Effect' in Crypto Markets** In traditional economic understanding, when the world's largest economy wields the tariff stick, its trading partners often fall into recession. However, when the Trump administration forcefully imposed a 15% universal tariff in 2026, market feedback revealed a dramatically counter-intuitive logic: China, the primary target, and Brazil, far away in South America, were rated by institutions as the biggest beneficiaries. In this era of geopolitical maneuvering in 2026, the cryptocurrency market is no longer a "lawless land" decoupled from the macroeconomy. From the billions of dollars parked in Bitcoin spot ETFs to the surreptitious penetration of stablecoins in global cross-border trade, every pulse of traditional finance sends massive ripples through the Web3 world. This article will delve into the underlying logic of this tariff storm and reveal the hidden structural Alpha for crypto investors amidst the wave of "deglobalization." **I. Tariff Backlash: Why China and Brazil Emerge as the 'Biggest Winners'?** To understand the core of this news, one must look beyond the surface of tariff policy to see the real path of global supply chain shifts. **1. China: The Triumph of Supply Chain Resilience and 'Production Capacity Going Global'** The initial intention behind Trump's 15% global tariff was to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. However, the complexity of modern industrial systems prevents the underlying supply chain from being violently severed in the short term. * **The Boom in 'Re-export Trade':** Facing direct tariffs, Chinese enterprises have long since executed a deep strategy of "production capacity going global" over the past few years. A vast amount of intermediate products are assembled in countries engaged in "nearshoring" or "friendshoring," like Mexico and Vietnam, ultimately still flowing into the U.S. market. The 15% global tariff effectively raised export costs for all countries, but this ironically highlighted the absolute advantage of "Made in China" in terms of the efficiency of the entire industrial chain. * **Accelerated Expansion into Non-U.S. Markets:** Trade barriers have forced China to accelerate its trade重心 towards the "Global South." This forced decoupling from reliance on the single U.S. market has made China's export structure healthier and more diversified. **2. Brazil: The 'Tailwind' for the Commodity King** Brazil's logic for benefiting is more direct and straightforward. As a core global exporter of agriculture and natural resources, Brazil has perfectly captured the dividends of supply chain restructuring in this game. * **The Perfect Substitute for U.S. Agricultural Products:** When the U.S. erects tariff barriers globally, it inevitably invites retaliation. Vast consumer markets like China will immediately reduce imports of U.S. soybeans, corn, and other agricultural products, channeling massive orders towards Brazil instead. * **Internal BRICS Circulation:** Brazil and China, both core members of BRICS, will see their bilateral trade surge. This not only boosts Brazil's domestic economy but also strategically accelerates the use of local currencies or alternative settlement systems between the two nations. **II. Macro Transmission Mechanism: Reignited Inflation and the Fed's 'Dilemma'** For the Web3 market, the most critical transmission path of tariff policy lies in changes to inflation and interest rate expectations. **1. Tariffs Equal 'Imported Inflation'** A 15% global tariff won't instantly make U.S. domestic businesses competitive; its direct consequence is a comprehensive increase in domestic prices. Importers will pass almost 100% of the tariff cost onto U.S. consumers. This means the inflation that the Fed managed to suppress in 2024-2025 is highly likely to face a serious "second wave" rebound in 2026. **2. High Interest Rates and the Liquidity Game** If inflation reignites, the Fed will have no choice but to keep the federal funds rate high for an extended period, potentially even being forced to restart rate hikes. In traditional financial models, high interest rates mean rising risk-free yields, causing capital to flee from high-risk assets like crypto. However, the logic of the crypto market in 2026 has already mutated: * **Bitcoin's 'Anti-Fiat Debasement' Narrative Strengthens:** When high rates are implemented to combat "malignant inflation" rather than "economic overheating," the purchasing power of fiat currency is actually eroding faster. In this context, Bitcoin, as a non-sovereign asset with a fixed supply of 21 million, will have its safe-haven "digital gold"属性 fully activated. **III. The BRICS Payments Counter-Offensive: A Hidden Boom for Web3 Stablecoins** The warming of trade between China and Brazil inevitably touches the most sensitive nerve of the global financial system: de-dollarization and cross-border settlement. This is the core arena where crypto technology shines. **1. Cracks in the SWIFT System and the Rise of BRICS Pay** To circumvent potential U.S. financial sanctions and high dollar conversion costs, China and Brazil are vigorously promoting local currency settlement or reliance on systems like BRICS Pay in their trade. In this process, "trust" becomes the biggest pain point in cross-border transactions. **2. Stablecoins: The 'Underground Dollar' Network** Beyond official financial infrastructure, Web3 stablecoins (like USDT, USDC) are experiencing explosive growth in emerging markets across Latin America and Asia. * **Brazil's Crypto Adoption Miracle:** Brazil is currently one of the countries with the highest cryptocurrency adoption rates globally. Facing volatility in the local Real (BRL) and the demands of cross-border trade, Brazilian businesses and individuals heavily utilize stablecoins for value storage and payment flow. * **Advantages of Decentralized Payments:** In traditional trade wars, capital controls are the norm. However, stablecoin networks operating on Ethereum, Tron, or Solana provide a parallel financial settlement layer that operates 24/7 and is immune to sanctions from any single sovereign nation. It is foreseeable that as trade barriers deepen, Web3 protocols dedicated to building compliant and efficient cross-border payments (the PayFi sector) will experience exponential business growth. **IV. Finding Alpha: Structural Adjustments to Web3 Portfolios Amid the Tariff War** Facing the global macro shifts triggered by Trump's tariff policy, how should crypto investors adjust their positions and investment logic? Here are three Web3 sub-sectors with strong resilience and explosive potential: **1. Macro Anchor: Bitcoin (BTC) and the Sovereign Allocation Narrative** In the era of deglobalization, trust between sovereign nations is at an all-time low. Bitcoin is no longer just a retail投机 tool but a "neutral foreign exchange reserve" for state-level entities. In the geopolitical friction caused by tariffs, any event that could potentially weaken the U.S. dollar's global reserve status is a long-term positive for Bitcoin's valuation. Allocating to BTC is essentially shorting the "old fiat credit system." **2. RWA (Real World Assets): Bridging Latin American Commodities** If Brazil is one of the biggest winners in this tariff war, then RWA projects deeply tied to South American agriculture, mining, and the real economy will face an epic opportunity. * **Commodity Tokenization:** Tokenizing the income rights from Brazilian agricultural or mining yields via smart contracts, attracting global crypto market liquidity. * **Non-U.S. Credit Protocols:** DeFi protocols providing on-chain credit to SMEs in emerging markets (like LatAm, Southeast Asia) will generate Real Yield far exceeding that available in Western markets, due to the counter-cyclical rise in trade activity in these regions. **3. PayFi and Decentralized Stablecoin Infrastructure** As mentioned, tariff barriers inevitably bring the threat of financial sanctions. Alongside centralized stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle, the market will increasingly crave censorship-resistant decentralized stablecoins (like Ethena's USDe, MakerDAO's DAI) and middleware networks providing seamless on/off ramps. Protocols that can bridge Latin America's PIX payment system with Web3 wallets will become core targets for the next wave of capital inflow. **V. Conclusion: Decentralization is the Only Antidote to 'Deglobalization'** Trump's 15% global tariff policy may appear as a traditional political economy game, but the ripples it creates are precisely transmitted to the Web3 world through multiple paths: supply chain disruption, reignited inflation, and de-dollarization. The gains for China and Brazil fundamentally represent the forced shift of the global economic in an era of fragmentation. In this era, "deglobalization" is a foregone conclusion, and walls of trade protectionism are rising globally. However, the flow of capital and information cannot be locked behind physical borders. The essence of blockchain technology—permissionlessness, censorship resistance, and decentralized consensus—is precisely humanity's ultimate antidote to trade barriers and financial isolation.