Mike Novogratz: The era of 100x crypto returns for Bitcoin and altcoins is over.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has stated his belief that the era of exceptionally high returns in cryptocurrency may be coming to an end. He noted that retail investors seeking quick profits are gradually being replaced by more conservative institutional investors, signaling the maturation of the crypto market. Speaking at CNBC's Digital Financial Forum in New York on Tuesday, Novogratz explained that this shift reflects the industry's evolution. "Retail investors aren’t buying cryptocurrencies to get 11% a year," he said. "They came in because they were getting 30x, 8x, 10x their investment." The Aftermath of the FTX Collapse and October Liquidations Novogratz recalled the collapse of FTX in 2022, which triggered a severe bear market. Bitcoin's price plummeted 78%, dropping from $69,000 to $15,700. This led to what he described as a "crisis of confidence" in the market. He also specifically mentioned the liquidation event on October 10, which drove many retail investors and market makers into bankruptcy. Selling pressure intensified despite the absence of a major catalyst. "There was no smoking gun this time," Novogratz said. "You look around and think, 'What the hell is going on?'" Tokenized Assets and the Shift from Speculation to Investment Looking ahead, Novogratz predicted that cryptocurrency applications will shift from high-yield speculation towards more practical uses, such as the tokenization of real-world assets, which can offer more stable returns. While some traders will continue to speculate, he expects crypto infrastructure to increasingly support the global banking and financial services industry. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov echoed similar views, stating that tokenized real-world assets will "be worth more total than cryptocurrencies and fundamentally change the entire industry." Changing Demographics of Bitcoin Holders David Marcus, co-founder and CEO of Lightspark and a former PayPal executive, observed a shift in Bitcoin ownership. "It's simply that the demographics of who holds Bitcoin have moved from long-term, direct holders to a broader set of users integrated into our financial system and markets," he said. Marcus added that the October liquidations and the changing composition of holders have altered market dynamics. However, those who still view Bitcoin as a hedge against broader market uncertainty are expected to remain resilient. Market Patterns and Institutional Impact Historically, predictions of the "end of the speculative era" are not new, echoing warnings made during the dot-com bubble burst and the 2008 financial crisis. However, institutionalization may instead increase crypto's correlation with traditional assets, challenging its status as an alternative financial system. History also shows that periods of market stability often precede waves of innovation, suggesting that the next catalyst for crypto may come not from existing tokenized assets, but from new financial products.