Before Trump changed his mind, the oil market suddenly saw an abnormal short order of US$320 million.
Traders bet hundreds of millions of dollars on crude oil futures contracts on Monday, minutes before U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would delay strikes on Iranian energy facilities. Market data reviewed by the BBC showed a spike in trading volume about 15 minutes before Trump's social media announcement. Oil prices fell sharply after the news was announced, plunging 14% within minutes.Traders betting on this unexpected move profited handsomely. Some market analysts said the unusual trading behavior raised the possibility that the bets may have been made with advance knowledge of the decision. The BBC has contacted the White House for comment.A spokesman told the Financial Times that the White House "does not tolerate any government official using inside information to illegally profit." The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) did not respond to a request for comment.The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) declined to comment. Global financial markets have been rocked by the conflict in the Middle East, with stock prices sliding as oil and gas prices soared; but there have been wild swings at several moments when an end to the war was expected, with oil prices falling sharply and stocks rising. On Saturday, Trump threatened to "destroy" Iran's power plants if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.About 20% of the world's oil and natural gas is typically transported through the strait. The market was closed that day, but after Asian markets reopened on Monday morning, they plummeted across the board and oil prices began to rise. However, at 7:04 ET on Monday, before the U.S. market opened this week, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that Washington and Tehran had a "very good and productive dialogue" on "a complete and complete resolution" of hostilities. As soon as the news came out, the stock market immediately rebounded, and the price of U.S. benchmark WTI crude oil fell to a low of $84 per barrel. Observers have since scrutinized what happened in financial markets in the minutes leading up to the president's message. At 6:49 EST, traders placed 734 bets on the WTI crude oil contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex).One minute later, the number soared to 2,168 transactions, equivalent to about $170 million. The same pattern was seen in trading in the Brent crude contract, another major crude benchmark.Between 6:48 and 6:50 EST, transaction volume soared from 20 to more than 1,650, with contracts worth approximately US$150 million.